Election polls play a crucial role in predicting the outcome of elections and shaping public opinion. However, it’s important to understand that the results of any single poll should be taken with a grain of salt.
Many polls only ask about 1,000 people about their political preferences, which is quite small in comparison to the often millions of voters. So, how reliable are those results? Or in other words, how confident can we be in the results? To understand some of these intricacies, read on!
Continue reading “Confidence Intervals in Election Polling: Understanding the Uncertainty of Political Forecasting”
Weather and climate are words often used interchangeably in casual conversations. But when a chilly summer breeze sweeps through in July, or when unexpected rains dampen our winter holidays, the age-old debate resurfaces: “Is climate change even real?”
If you want to dive deep into the fascinating realm of chaotic systems to unravel this enigma and distinguish between weather and climate, read on!
Continue reading “Is this still Weather or is it already Climate? Decoding Chaos!”
The stock market is one of the most complex systems we know about. Millions of intelligent, highly competitive people (and increasingly AIs) try to outwit each other to earn as much money as possible.
In this post we build a simulation where little agents employ different trading strategies on an artificial stock market to replicate key stylized facts of real financial markets, so read on!
Continue reading “Can a Simple Multi-Agent Model Replicate Complex Stock Market Behaviour?”
The 21st century has been marked by a series of global crises – from environmental degradation and pandemics to economic instability and political unrest.
As we hurtle forward towards the future, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the challenges we face as a species are numerous and interlinked, the word “polycrisis” is making the rounds.
These pressing issues raise the question: will humanity survive in the long term, or are we facing extinction – and if so, when? If you want to learn about a method to predict doomsday, read on!
Continue reading “Polycrisis: When Will the World End? Professor Gott’s Equation Gives an Answer! (Also as a Video!)”
The current protests in China make many people wonder whether the situation will escalate further.
For a demographics-based analysis (youth bulge theory), read on!
Continue reading “How Stable is China?”
When addressing somebody unknown to you with an uncommon name e.g. in an email you might not know whether this person is male or female. In this post, we make it a little fun project to let R help us with that, so read on!
Continue reading “Which Gender is associated with this Name? R to the R-escue!”
Many wonder why there are so few protests in Russia over the brutal war against Ukraine. An answer could lie in the youth bulge theory which we will use again to explain the relative lethargy of the Russian populace, so read on!
Continue reading “Youth Bulge Theory: Why there won’t be an Uprising in Russia”
The Oktoberfest in Munich, also called “Wiesn” in the local Bavarian dialect, is the world’s largest Volksfest. It had been cancelled for the last two years due to COVID-19. Stakes are running high whether it should be cancelled again this year. To get some perspective, read on!
Continue reading “Corona-Superspreading or just “Wiesn-flu”? Should the Oktoberfest be cancelled again?”
I am in the middle of creating a new German YouTube channel that is centered around data science and R! I put a lot of effort into it to serve the interests of the community.
If you want to be a part of the process, watch interesting videos with data-based analyses and look behind the scenes, please consider subscribing to the channel!
The number of subscriptions is also vital for the YouTube algorithm to recommend the videos to other viewers on the platform!
Continue reading “Please Subscribe to My New (German) Data Science YouTube Channel!”
The skill-vs-luck debate never ceases to fascinate. Is it mainly skill, experience, hard work, and the “right” mindset that determines who is becoming successful, rich, or famous, or is it largely luck and fortunate circumstances?
In this post, we will conduct an illuminating simulation to show that even a small amount of luck can make all the difference! If you want to learn about the success paradox, read on!
Continue reading “The Success Paradox: Why even a little Bit of Luck often beats Skill”