Asset returns have certain statistical properties, also called stylized facts. Important ones are:
- Absence of autocorrelation: basically the direction of the return of one day doesn’t tell you anything useful about the direction of the next day.
- Fat tails: returns are not normal, i.e. there are many more extreme events than there would be if returns were normal.
- Volatility clustering: basically financial markets exhibit high-volatility and low-volatility regimes.
- Leverage effect: high-volatility regimes tend to coincide with falling prices and vice versa.
Continue reading “Inverse Statistics – and how to create Gain-Loss Asymmetry plots in R”
As promised in the post Learning Data Science: Modelling Basics we will now go a step further and try to predict income brackets with real world data and different modelling approaches. We will learn a thing or two along the way, e.g. about the so-called Accuracy-Interpretability Trade-Off, so read on…
Continue reading “Learning Data Science: Predicting Income Brackets”
In this post we will see that a little bit of simple R code can go a very long way! So let’s get started!
Continue reading “Learning R: The Collatz Conjecture”
Hamlet: Do you see yonder cloud that’s almost in shape of a camel?
Polonius: By the mass, and ’tis like a camel, indeed.
Hamlet: Methinks it is like a weasel.
from Hamlet by William Shakespeare
Continue reading “Evolution works!”