With COVID-19 after the vaccination is before the vaccination. Now that most people in the developed countries have been vaccinated the question arises of how much boost is in the booster shot. We are here to help you understand the real power (or lack thereof) of the booster, so read on!
Continue reading “COVID-19: The Incredible Shrinking Boost of the Booster Shot”
Over one billion dollars have been spent in the US to split up big schools into smaller ones because small schools regularly show up in rankings as top performers.
In this post, I will show you why that money was wasted because of a widespread (but not so well known) statistical artifact, so read on!
Continue reading “The Most Dangerous Equation, or Why Small is Not Beautiful!”
In view of the current dramatic events in Afghanistan many wonder why the extensive international efforts to bring some stability to the country have failed so miserably.
In this post, we will present and analytically examine a fascinating theory that seems to be able to explain political (in-)stability almost mono-causally, so read on!
Continue reading “The “Youth Bulge” of Afghanistan: The Hidden Force behind Political Instability”
COVID-19 has the world more than ever in its grip – but there is hope: several vaccines have been developed which promise to deliver “95% efficacy”.
When people read this many assume that it means that 95% of vaccinated persons will be protected from infection – but that is not true. Even many (science) journalists get it wrong! If you want to understand what it really means, read on!
Continue reading “COVID-19 vaccine “95% effective”: It doesn’t mean what you think it means!”
In this post, we are going to replicate an analysis from the current issue of Scientific American about a common mathematical pitfall of Coronavirus antibody tests with R.
Many people think that when they get a positive result of such a test they are immune to the virus with high probability. If you want to find out why nothing could be further from the truth, read on!
Continue reading “COVID-19: False Positive Alarm”
The global lockdown has slowed down mobility considerably. This can be seen in the data produced by our ubiquitous mobile phones.
Apple is kind enough to make those anonymized and aggregated data available to the public. If you want to learn how to get a handle on those data and analyze trends with R read on!
Continue reading “COVID-19: Analyze Mobility Trends with R”
One of the biggest problems of the COVID-19 pandemic is that there are no reliable numbers of infections. This fact renders many model projections next to useless.
If you want to get to know a simple method how to roughly estimate the real number of infections and expected deaths in the US, read on!
Continue reading “COVID-19 in the US: Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation of Actual Infections and Future Deaths”
Learning Machines proudly presents a guest post by Martijn Weterings from the Food and Natural Products research group of the Institute of Life Technologies at the University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland in Sion.
Continue reading “Contagiousness of COVID-19 Part I: Improvements of Mathematical Fitting (Guest Post)”
It is such a beautiful day outside, lot’s of sunshine, spring at last… and we are now basically all grounded and sitting here, waiting to get sick.
So, why not a post from the new epicentre of the global COVID-19 pandemic, Central Europe, more exactly where I live: Germany?! Indeed, if you want to find out what the numbers tell us how things might develop here, read on!
Continue reading “COVID-19: The Case of Germany”
A new invisible enemy, only 30kb in size, has emerged and is on a killing spree around the world: 2019-nCoV, the Novel Coronavirus!
It has already killed more people than the SARS pandemic and its outbreak has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO).
If you want to learn how epidemiologists estimate how contagious a new virus is and how to do it in R read on!
Continue reading “Epidemiology: How contagious is Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?”