The geopolitics of the Middle East has always been complex, with its share of conflicts and political unrest. Numerous theories have been proposed to dissect the underpinnings of the region’s political instability.
One such theory, known as the Youth Bulge Theory, asserts that a high proportion of young people within a population can lead to political instability and even violence. This theory could provide an illuminating perspective on the dynamics of the Middle East conflicts.
If you want to understand this most important ingredient of the ongoing conflict, read on!
Continue reading “The Forgotten Factor in the Middle East Conflict | Youth Bulge Theory”
Election polls play a crucial role in predicting the outcome of elections and shaping public opinion. However, it’s important to understand that the results of any single poll should be taken with a grain of salt.
Many polls only ask about 1,000 people about their political preferences, which is quite small in comparison to the often millions of voters. So, how reliable are those results? Or in other words, how confident can we be in the results? To understand some of these intricacies, read on!
Continue reading “Confidence Intervals in Election Polling: Understanding the Uncertainty of Political Forecasting”
The stock market is one of the most complex systems we know about. Millions of intelligent, highly competitive people (and increasingly AIs) try to outwit each other to earn as much money as possible.
In this post we build a simulation where little agents employ different trading strategies on an artificial stock market to replicate key stylized facts of real financial markets, so read on!
Continue reading “Can a Simple Multi-Agent Model Replicate Complex Stock Market Behaviour?”
This post presents a real highlight: We will build and backtest a quantitative trading strategy in R with the help of OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4! If you want to get a glimpse into the future of trading system development, read on!
Continue reading “Building and Backtesting a Volatility-based Trading Strategy with ChatGPT”
The 21st century has been marked by a series of global crises – from environmental degradation and pandemics to economic instability and political unrest.
As we hurtle forward towards the future, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the challenges we face as a species are numerous and interlinked, the word “polycrisis” is making the rounds.
These pressing issues raise the question: will humanity survive in the long term, or are we facing extinction – and if so, when? If you want to learn about a method to predict doomsday, read on!
Continue reading “Polycrisis: When Will the World End? Professor Gott’s Equation Gives an Answer! (Also as a Video!)”
Everybody and their dog are talking about ChatGPT from OpenAI. If you want to get an intuition about what lies at the core of such Language Models, read on!
Continue reading “Create Texts with a Markov Chain Text Generator… and what this has to do with ChatGPT!”
The current protests in China make many people wonder whether the situation will escalate further.
For a demographics-based analysis (youth bulge theory), read on!
Continue reading “How Stable is China?”
Predicting football (a.k.a. soccer) games based on statistical models has been one of my hobbies for many years now.
Here, I will give you my prediction for Germany in the group stage of the World Cup 2022 with full R-code, so read on!
Continue reading “World Cup 2022: My Prediction for Germany in the Group Stage (also as a Video)!”
When addressing somebody unknown to you with an uncommon name e.g. in an email you might not know whether this person is male or female. In this post, we make it a little fun project to let R help us with that, so read on!
Continue reading “Which Gender is associated with this Name? R to the R-escue!”
Many wonder why there are so few protests in Russia over the brutal war against Ukraine. An answer could lie in the youth bulge theory which we will use again to explain the relative lethargy of the Russian populace, so read on!
Continue reading “Youth Bulge Theory: Why there won’t be an Uprising in Russia”