Election polls play a crucial role in predicting the outcome of elections and shaping public opinion. However, it’s important to understand that the results of any single poll should be taken with a grain of salt.
Many polls only ask about 1,000 people about their political preferences, which is quite small in comparison to the often millions of voters. So, how reliable are those results? Or in other words, how confident can we be in the results? To understand some of these intricacies, read on!
Continue reading “Confidence Intervals in Election Polling: Understanding the Uncertainty of Political Forecasting”
Weather and climate are words often used interchangeably in casual conversations. But when a chilly summer breeze sweeps through in July, or when unexpected rains dampen our winter holidays, the age-old debate resurfaces: “Is climate change even real?”
If you want to dive deep into the fascinating realm of chaotic systems to unravel this enigma and distinguish between weather and climate, read on!
Continue reading “Is this still Weather or is it already Climate? Decoding Chaos!”
The stock market is one of the most complex systems we know about. Millions of intelligent, highly competitive people (and increasingly AIs) try to outwit each other to earn as much money as possible.
In this post we build a simulation where little agents employ different trading strategies on an artificial stock market to replicate key stylized facts of real financial markets, so read on!
Continue reading “Can a Simple Multi-Agent Model Replicate Complex Stock Market Behaviour?”
In this post, let us rise into the air to have a good view of the stock market. From this vantage point, seemingly unrelated things all of a sudden become connected and patterns hidden by all the buzz and noise start to appear!
If you want to understand the big picture of technical and fundamental analysis, its relation to the payoffs of certain option strategies, and what this has to do with buy-and-hold, read on!
Continue reading “The Big Picture: Technical + Fundamental Trading = Buy-and-Hold”
R is a powerful programming language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. In this post, we will provide a quick introduction to R using the famous iris dataset.
We will cover loading data, exploring the dataset, basic data manipulation, and plotting. By the end, you should have a good understanding of how to get started with R, so read on!
Continue reading “R for Everyone: Analytical Superpowers in under 10 Minutes!”
This post presents a real highlight: We will build and backtest a quantitative trading strategy in R with the help of OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4! If you want to get a glimpse into the future of trading system development, read on!
Continue reading “Building and Backtesting a Volatility-based Trading Strategy with ChatGPT”
The topic of consciousness doesn’t cease to fascinate me. I have already written about it here: Will AI become conscious any time soon?. This essay could be seen as a continuation of my ongoing journey towards an integrated (holistic) worldview of mind and matter, that could be characterized as having a spiritual dimension to it, yet being grounded in science.
Continue reading “Cosmopsychism and the Many Worlds Interpretation: A Monistic Perspective on Consciousness and Quantum Mechanics”
The 21st century has been marked by a series of global crises – from environmental degradation and pandemics to economic instability and political unrest.
As we hurtle forward towards the future, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the challenges we face as a species are numerous and interlinked, the word “polycrisis” is making the rounds.
These pressing issues raise the question: will humanity survive in the long term, or are we facing extinction – and if so, when? If you want to learn about a method to predict doomsday, read on!
Continue reading “Polycrisis: When Will the World End? Professor Gott’s Equation Gives an Answer! (Also as a Video!)”
Word embedding, self-attention, and next-word prediction lie at the core of LLMs like ChatGPT. If you are curious about how these techniques work and want to see a simple example in R, read on!
Continue reading “Attention! What lies at the Core of ChatGPT? (Also as a Video!)”
Everybody and their dog are talking about ChatGPT from OpenAI. If you want to get an intuition about what lies at the core of such Language Models, read on!
Continue reading “Create Texts with a Markov Chain Text Generator… and what this has to do with ChatGPT!”